“美元微笑论”创立者：美元在特朗普任期内将再跌超13%

Core Viewpoint - The recent short-term rebound of the US dollar is unlikely to change its downward trend, with predictions of a further decline of approximately 13.5% in the dollar index during the remainder of President Trump's term, potentially marking the worst year for the dollar in eight years [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US labor market showed signs of significant slowdown in the second half of October, reinforcing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Despite a historic government shutdown that interrupted official economic data, the dollar recorded its second-best monthly performance of the year in October [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decrease in US GDP growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, while the Eurozone's growth is expected to rise from 0.9% to 1.2% [4]. Group 2: Dollar Dynamics - The "Dollar Smile Theory" suggests that the dollar strengthens in two scenarios: when the US economy significantly outperforms the global economy or during severe recessions; it tends to weaken during moderate growth periods [4]. - The current decline of the dollar is attributed more to capital outflows from the US rather than economic pull from Europe or Asia, as the US approaches a soft landing while other regions accelerate in growth [4]. - The Trump administration's unpredictable trade policies and expectations of further rate cuts are contributing to the dollar's poor performance [4]. Group 3: Alternative Investments - There is a declining trust in the major reserve currency, leading investors to shift towards alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin, which are reaching new highs [5]. - A weaker dollar is seen as necessary for the Trump administration to fulfill its promise of revitalizing the manufacturing sector by lowering production costs [5].