豆粕下方支撑较强

Core Viewpoint - Recent positive developments in trade relations have driven an increase in domestic and international soybean prices, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [1] Group 1: Domestic Supply and Import Data - China's soybean imports in October reached 9.48 million tons, the highest for the same period historically, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2] - Cumulative imports from January to October 2025 totaled 95.68 million tons, up 6.4% year-on-year, with expectations of 8 million tons and 7.5 million tons to be purchased in November and December respectively, leading to a projected total import exceeding 110 million tons for 2025, a 5% increase from 2024 [2] - Domestic soybean supply remains ample, with port inventories rising to 10.334 million tons, significantly higher than last year's 6.8975 million tons [2] Group 2: Export Expectations and Uncertainties - Recent improvements in U.S. soybean export expectations are tempered by uncertainties in actual purchase volumes, with a notable slowdown in procurement progress for November and December [3] - The average soybean purchase volume over the past five years for November and December is 8.8 million tons, significantly lower than the 12 million tons agreed upon [3] - The high 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans has led to increased import costs, limiting the enthusiasm for purchasing [3] Group 3: Cost Dynamics and Market Conditions - The cost of South American soybeans has decreased, with the premium for December shipments dropping from 252 cents to 235 cents per bushel, enhancing Brazil's price competitiveness [4] - Current costs for Brazilian soybeans range from 3,900 to 4,050 yuan per ton, while U.S. soybean costs are between 4,500 and 4,600 yuan per ton, indicating greater losses for U.S. imports [4] - Domestic crushing margins are negative, prompting potential reductions in short-term imports to stabilize prices and improve margins [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The likelihood of increased Brazilian soybean production under stable weather conditions suggests a loose global supply environment, which may limit significant price increases for soybean meal [5] - The upcoming USDA supply and demand report on November 14 is expected to adjust export forecasts upward while potentially lowering yield estimates, which could positively impact U.S. soybean prices [5] - Potential weather issues in Brazil may provide natural support for the market, reinforcing the stability of soybean meal prices [5]