Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures continues to rebound, but the upward space for aluminum prices should not be overestimated due to the deepening off-season effect in consumption [1] - In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.7421 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a month-on-month increase of 3.52% [1] - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 4.406 million tons, with total built capacity at 4.584 million tons as of the end of October [1] Group 2: Import and Inventory Dynamics - In September, China's primary aluminum imports were 246,840.85 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 14.36% and a year-on-year increase of 80.07% [2] - Russia was the largest source of imports, accounting for 71.26% of total imports in September, with a significant year-on-year increase of 97.44% [2] - As of November 10, domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 627,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week but increasing by 35,000 tons from the end of September [2] Group 3: Production Costs and Profitability - The average production cost of electrolytic aluminum in October was 16,119.03 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% month-on-month [3] - The average profit for the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in October was 4,908 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 13.07% [3] - By November 10, the instantaneous profit had risen to 5,392.87 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4,553.95 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning to a new cycle of stable development and structural optimization, with September production and sales surpassing 3 million units for the first time [4] - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales in September, with significant year-on-year growth [4] - The market is expected to maintain steady growth, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 32.9 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4] Group 5: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal transition, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [5] - Demand is showing a clear divergence, with construction and photovoltaic sectors remaining weak, while automotive lightweighting and energy storage orders are relatively stable [6] - Despite a slight accumulation in aluminum ingot inventory, the absolute level remains low compared to historical data, providing some support for aluminum prices [6]
利好效应仍存 沪铝延续反弹
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-11-11 23:18