“美元微笑”理论创始人预警：特朗普任内美元恐再暴跌13.5%

Core Viewpoint - The well-known analyst Stephen Jen predicts that despite a recent rebound, the struggling dollar will continue to decline, driven by accelerating overseas economic growth that diminishes the dollar's appeal [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - Jen forecasts that the dollar index will drop by an additional 13.5% during the remainder of Trump's presidential term, compounding an already accumulated decline of approximately 7% in 2025, potentially marking the worst year for the dollar in eight years [1][2]. - The dollar's next significant movement is expected to be downward, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Theories - Jen's analysis aligns with his "dollar smile" theory, which posits that the dollar tends to perform well during periods of extreme economic strength or deep recession, while struggling during moderate growth phases [2]. - The U.S. economy's ability to achieve a soft landing is under observation, as it needs to complement accelerating growth in other global regions [2][3]. Group 3: Global Economic Comparisons - The International Monetary Fund projects that U.S. GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2% by 2025, while the Eurozone economy is expected to accelerate from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.2% [3]. - Jen highlights that the Trump administration may require further dollar depreciation to reduce costs in the manufacturing sector, which it aims to revitalize [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - There is a growing aversion to major reserve currencies, including the dollar, which is driving record increases in gold and Bitcoin prices, a trend that Jen anticipates will continue [3][4].