ADP(US:ADP) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-12 00:05Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with an average of over 11,000 job cuts per week reported by ADP, indicating a slowdown in hiring activities during the fall [1] - ADP's monthly report for October revealed a net addition of 42,000 jobs in the private sector, reversing a two-month decline, but the latest weekly estimates suggest a gradual deceleration in hiring [1][2] - The increase in layoffs, with 153,000 announced in October, represents a 183% surge from September, marking the highest level for this period since 2003 [2] Group 2 - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.3, a three-year low, reflecting rising uncertainty about job prospects and income among households [2] - Job creation in October was primarily concentrated in traditional sectors like trade, transportation, and utilities, while professional services and information sectors continued to decline [2] - The ongoing government shutdown has left the Federal Reserve without key employment data, increasing reliance on private sector reports to gauge economic conditions [3] Group 3 - Market expectations indicate a 63% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, driven by the slowdown in the labor market and declining consumer confidence [3] - The combination of inflation pressures and employment slowdown is creating an unsettling economic environment, with concerns that only a few benefit while many struggle to maintain their livelihoods [4]