Core Insights - Bitcoin is struggling to rebound after a significant market cap loss of approximately $340 billion since October 10, primarily due to profit-taking by early large holders and the aftermath of a massive liquidation event [1][2][5] - Despite positive news from Washington regarding the end of the government shutdown, the cryptocurrency market has not experienced the expected strong rally, indicating persistent investor anxiety following substantial losses [1][5] Market Indicators - The total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures is around $68 billion, down from a peak of $94 billion last month, reflecting a significant decline in speculative interest in the derivatives market [2] - The funding rate, which measures the cost of leveraged positions, remains stable, suggesting that traders are not actively increasing their long positions [2] ETF Performance - Bitcoin ETFs, a crucial source of new capital for the market, have shown lackluster performance, with only $1 million in net inflows on a day when the U.S. stock market rose significantly [5] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price is currently trading below the 200-day moving average, which is seen as a critical threshold for any sustained upward movement [7][10] - Analysts highlight that $103,000 is a key structural support level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $86,000 or even $82,000 [10] Market Sentiment - There is a notable divide among market participants regarding the recent price movements, with some viewing the short-term rise as a mere "dead cat bounce," while others see potential signs of a trend reversal [11][12] - Some analysts express cautious optimism, noting that Bitcoin briefly tracked the rise of risk assets, which could indicate a positive sign, while others attribute the recent uptick to structural factors rather than a solid return of fundamental confidence [12]
币圈情绪依旧脆弱，“美国政府关门”结束的利好，比特币也没有像样的反弹
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-12 00:24