库存未见明显去化 工业硅上方空间受制约

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a strong price trend due to supply-side contraction and optimistic market sentiment, with the main futures contract closing at 9,180 yuan/ton as of yesterday [1] Cost Structure - Electricity costs constitute the largest portion of industrial silicon production costs, accounting for 40% to 55% depending on regional electricity prices. In the Southwest production area, electricity prices are expected to rise by 0.15 to 0.25 yuan/kWh, increasing production costs by approximately 2,000 yuan/ton [2] - Other significant production costs include silicon coal, petroleum coke, silicon electrodes, and silicon stone. Despite a decrease in silicon coal demand due to lower production rates, prices are expected to remain stable due to strong cost support [2] - The price of petroleum coke is rising due to good demand and supply contraction, while silicon electrodes face upward price resistance due to weak demand and inventory pressure [2] - Overall, the increase in production costs provides solid support for silicon prices [2] Supply Dynamics - The operating rate in the Southwest production area (Yunnan and Sichuan) has dropped significantly as it transitions from the wet season to the dry season, leading to reduced production and profitability for silicon companies [3] - As of last week, the operating rate in Sichuan was 41%, with smaller companies operating at around 13%. In Yunnan, most companies have entered a seasonal shutdown period, with an expected production drop of over 50% in November [3] - In contrast, the Northwest region is seeing a recovery in operating rates, with Xinjiang's production accounting for 52% of the national total. Overall, the national industrial silicon production is expected to fall below 400,000 tons in November, a 12% decrease month-on-month [4] Demand Trends - Demand changes primarily stem from the polysilicon sector, which has been in a state of reduced production since mid-2024. Polysilicon prices have rebounded, leading to a slight increase in production rates, but November's output is expected to decrease to around 120,000 tons [6] - The organic silicon sector is recovering as maintenance in southern and southwestern regions concludes, potentially increasing demand for industrial silicon. However, purchasing behavior remains cautious, focusing on just-in-time inventory [6] Inventory Levels - As of November 6, total visible inventory of industrial silicon stands at 724,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons year-on-year but still at a relatively high level. Social inventory is 127,000 tons, with delivery warehouse inventory at 425,000 tons [7] - The anticipated cancellation of futures warehouse receipts at the end of the month may lead to 10,000 to 20,000 tons of industrial silicon entering the spot market, complicating inventory reduction efforts [7] Market Outlook - The increase in production costs supports silicon prices from below, while weak demand and high inventory levels constrain upward price movement. The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with further upward movement requiring additional positive stimuli [8]