美国市场现货升水暴涨近300%！铝品种 估值偏高？

Core Viewpoint - The increase in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs has significantly raised domestic aluminum procurement prices, with spot prices soaring to $4,800 per ton, reflecting an increase of over 40% since the tariff hike [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Prices - In June, the U.S. raised aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, leading to a spike in domestic aluminum prices [1]. - The Midwest U.S. aluminum spot premium rose from $794 per ton on June 6 to $1,548.9 per ton by June 13, marking an increase of over 95% within a week [1]. - The aluminum spot premium in the Midwest has increased by 286.5% compared to prices before the first round of tariff hikes in February [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Inventory - The inventory of aluminum products has been depleted due to pre-tariff "import rush," leading to renewed price increases [2]. - LME aluminum and COMEX aluminum price differentials have not materialized due to higher domestic recycled aluminum usage in the U.S. [2]. - LME aluminum inventory has been declining, influenced by reduced acceptance of Russian aluminum and increased demand for alternative sources [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Aluminum Prices - Several factors are driving the strength in aluminum prices, including low valuations of aluminum relative to copper, supply disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum production, and concerns over future electricity supply for aluminum production [4]. - The macroeconomic environment is generally optimistic, with expectations of liquidity improvements and fiscal expansion in the U.S. [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - Basic supply constraints, such as limited power supply and high costs, are hindering the recovery of smelting capacity, while new capacity additions are slow [5]. - The aluminum market is currently balanced, with no significant supply shortages, but the domestic market is transitioning from a consumption peak to a low season [6]. - Short-term aluminum prices are considered high, with potential for a correction, while supply increases are likely in the coming year [7].