“AI泡沫”的领先指标--美国云厂商的债券遭遇连续抛售

Core Insights - Concerns over AI spending by large tech companies have spread to the bond market, with debt spreads for hyperscale cloud computing firms reaching multi-month highs, indicating a potential risk reassessment of the entire AI narrative [1][3] - Barclays downgraded Oracle's debt rating, citing that the company's capital expenditures for AI contracts have significantly exceeded its free cash flow capacity, leading to a heavy reliance on external financing [1][4] Debt Market Dynamics - The yield spread of bonds issued by hyperscalers, including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, has risen to 0.78 percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, marking a significant increase from 0.5 percentage points in September [3] - Over the past seven weeks, tech companies have issued more than $120 billion in bonds, primarily to fund data center construction, raising concerns about overcapacity, long-term profitability, and energy demand [3] Oracle's Financial Strain - Oracle's situation is particularly notable, with Barclays predicting a severe financing gap starting in fiscal year 2027 and potential cash exhaustion by November 2026, driven by a high leverage ratio of 500% compared to Amazon's 50% and Microsoft's 30% [4][5] - Oracle's bond prices have dropped nearly 5% since mid-September, contrasting with a 1% decline in an index tracking high-rated tech bonds, reflecting investor concerns [5] Industry-Wide Implications - The challenges faced by Oracle are indicative of broader industry pressures stemming from the AI investment boom, with JPMorgan strategists warning that building AI infrastructure could cost over $5 trillion, necessitating participation from public capital markets, private credit, alternative capital, and even government [6] - Despite holding approximately $350 billion in cash and investments, tech giants are opting for significant debt issuance, signaling a shift from conservative financial strategies to higher leverage operational models [6] Recent Major Transactions - Meta completed a $30 billion bond issuance at the end of October, the largest corporate bond deal of 2023, and secured a $27 billion private debt agreement for data center funding [7] - Alphabet issued $25 billion in bonds in early November, while Oracle sold $18 billion in bonds in September to finance infrastructure leasing, including the "Stargate" data center for OpenAI [8] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The credit market's pressure is affecting smaller core participants, with CoreWeave's stock dropping over 20% in the past two weeks, coinciding with the bond sell-off by large tech firms [9] - Some analysts view the bond market sell-off as a healthy market response, suggesting that price corrections following significant bond supply are a positive sign [9]