张尧浠：众多美联储官员讲话来袭、金价维持看涨反弹预期

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish rebound, with a target of reaching around $4250, supported by a lack of significant bearish factors in the fundamentals [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The market anticipates the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will lead to the resumption of economic data releases, expected to show deterioration, thereby supporting gold prices [3][6]. - The ADP report predicts a weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs in the U.S. private sector, while Goldman Sachs estimates a decrease of about 50,000 non-farm jobs in October, the largest drop since 2020, potentially creating conditions for a Fed rate cut next month [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price opened at $4115.74 per ounce, reaching a high of $4148.65 before retreating to a low of $4097.25, ultimately closing at $4126.73, with a daily fluctuation of $51.4 [1][10]. - The weekly chart indicates that gold has not broken below the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential rebound and a return to the 5-week moving average [8]. Future Outlook - The market expects a 64% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, bolstered by recent comments from Fed officials regarding the labor market and inflation [6]. - Institutions predict that gold demand in the coming years may reach its strongest level since 2011, providing fundamental support for gold prices [6]. Resistance and Support Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4125 or $4110, while resistance levels are at $4185 or $4230 [11].