近来资金利率短涨长跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic funding market interest rates are experiencing a short-term rise and long-term decline trend, influenced by tax payments and liquidity injections from the central bank [1][3]. Interest Rate Summary - As of November 11, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 1-week, and 2-week rates are reported at 1.508%, 1.501%, and 1.518%, showing increases of 19.3, 8.6, and 4 basis points respectively compared to November 4 [2]. - The 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year rates are reported at 1.525%, 1.58%, 1.618%, 1.639%, and 1.65%, reflecting decreases of 2.1, 1.4, 0.85, 1.3, and 0.8 basis points respectively compared to November 4 [2]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank has a total of 495.8 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week and has conducted 523.7 billion yuan in reverse repo operations in the first two working days to stabilize short-term funding demand [3]. - The central bank is expected to release significant liquidity into the market through reverse repos during the week [3]. Economic Outlook - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from a year-on-year decline of 0.4% to an increase of 0.2%, enhancing market confidence and supporting long-term interest rates [3]. - Future expectations indicate a reversal in domestic funding market interest rates, likely transitioning to a short-term decline and long-term increase pattern as short-term funding demand subsides post-tax payments [3].