中金：创新药出海趋势明确 2026年依旧推荐哑铃策略

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights that insufficient medical insurance is suppressing domestic demand, while liquidity easing benefits innovative assets, and AI development empowers the pharmaceutical industry [1] Group 1: Innovation and Market Trends - The trend of innovation and internationalization in pharmaceuticals is clear, with drug approval reforms continuing to release dividends. The Chinese innovative drug industry has entered its 2.0 era, shifting from "import imitation" to "innovation output," evidenced by license out and new company formations [2] - The development of innovative drugs, alongside improved investment and financing data, indicates that CXO and upstream sectors are entering a new cycle. Other categories, such as medical devices, are also expected to internationalize [2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Policy Impact - Domestic demand is gradually improving after a year of concentrated medical anti-corruption efforts, with expectations that the impact on the industry will ease by 2025. Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are reflected in the pharmaceutical sector, where the price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurement have loosened [3] - The exploration of a multi-payment system and the increasing call for commercial insurance are expected to alleviate payment conflicts in the healthcare sector [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "barbell strategy" remains applicable in 2026, combining technological advancement with traditional defensive investments. The report is optimistic about the progressive attributes of medical technology, particularly the breakthroughs in innovative drugs and the integration of AI in healthcare [4] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence, particularly in the context of large model applications and algorithm optimization, presents significant opportunities for AI in various industries, including healthcare [4] - Traditional sectors are also expected to exhibit defensive characteristics, with state-owned enterprises in the pharmaceutical sector likely to enter a new cycle of high-quality development driven by further reforms and technological innovation [4]