“小非农”再度预警！10月ADP私营部门就业人数减少4.5万，创两年半来最大降幅

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a significant decline in employment within the U.S. private sector, with an average weekly reduction of 11,250 jobs over the four weeks ending October 25, leading to a total loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, marking the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [1][5] - Multiple companies have announced layoffs, with Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reporting the highest number of layoffs for this time of year in over two decades, raising concerns about the health of the labor market [3][5] - Goldman Sachs has developed a new tool to monitor discussions about layoffs in earnings calls, revealing an increase in such discussions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence, although evidence linking AI directly to layoffs remains inconclusive [4][8] Group 2 - The ADP has started releasing more frequent labor market data, which shows a concerning trend of increasing layoffs amid low hiring rates and high difficulty for unemployed individuals to find jobs [4] - A composite layoff tracking indicator created by Goldman Sachs, which includes various metrics such as WARN notices and initial unemployment claims, has risen in October and is currently above pre-pandemic levels, indicating an increased risk of labor market deterioration [8] - The small business confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to a six-month low in October, reflecting a decline in optimism due to worsening profit conditions and declining economic sentiment [8][10]