Does Disney Stock Have More Upside as Q4 Results Approach?

Core Insights - Disney's stock has shown a modest increase of 3% in 2025, remaining close to a 52-week high of $124 per share, despite a somewhat stagnant performance throughout the year [1][2] - The company is transitioning from aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented by CEO Bob Iger to a focus on long-term growth, raising investor concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy [2][3] Financial Performance Expectations - For Q4, Disney's sales are projected to rise by 1% to $22.88 billion, while EPS is expected to decline by 9% to $1.03 due to challenges in traditional TV and sports broadcasting [6] - Annual earnings for fiscal 2025 are anticipated to increase by 18% to $5.87 per share, with total sales expected to grow by 4% to $94.84 billion [6] Streaming and Profitability - Wall Street is keenly observing the profitability of Disney's streaming segment, which became profitable in Q2 2025, generating $346 million in operating income [7] - The combined streaming subscribers of Disney+, now merging with Hulu, exceed 200 million, positioning Disney in close competition with Amazon's Prime Video [11] Strategic Focus and Investments - Disney is reallocating resources towards high-growth areas such as streaming and global theme parks while cutting costs in underperforming assets like its legacy TV business [8] - The company plans to invest $6 billion in its Experiences segment, which includes theme parks and cruises, and is expanding into the Middle East with a new theme park resort in Abu Dhabi [9] Valuation Metrics - Disney's stock is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 17X, which is lower than the S&P 500's 25X and the industry average of 22X, indicating potential for long-term upside [12] - The stock is trading significantly below its decade-long high of 134X forward earnings and offers a slight discount to the median of 20X during this period [13] Market Outlook - The average price target for Disney shares is set at $135, suggesting a potential upside of 20% from current levels, with Q4 results and guidance being critical for demonstrating the success of the company's strategic expansion [14]