dbg markets盾博：分析师预测美元将在特朗普任期内继续下跌13.5%

Core Viewpoint - Renowned analyst Stephen Jen maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, believing that its recent rebound is unlikely to last and that the dollar will continue to decline [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Outlook - According to Jen's estimates, the dollar index may decline by an additional 13.5% during Trump's remaining presidential term [3]. - As of 2025, the dollar index is projected to have fallen approximately 7% from the beginning of the year, potentially making 2025 the worst year for the dollar in nearly eight years [3]. - The dollar's weakness this year is primarily attributed to the erratic trade policies of the Trump administration and strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - A report from ADP indicates a noticeable slowdown in the US labor market, with job growth falling short of expectations, which contributed to a slight decline in the Bloomberg dollar spot index [3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts that US GDP growth will slow from 2.8% last year to 2% by 2025, while the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to rise from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.2% [3]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Jen emphasizes that the Trump administration's efforts to revitalize US manufacturing align with a weaker dollar, as it would lower export costs and enhance competitiveness in global markets [3]. Group 4: Alternative Assets - The market's aversion to the dollar and other major reserve currencies is increasing, driving prices of alternative assets like gold to historical highs [4]. - Jen believes that as the dollar continues its downward trend, the preference for safe-haven assets and non-sovereign currency assets will strengthen, sustaining the upward trend in gold prices [4].