币圈情绪依旧脆弱 “美国政府关门”结束利好暂未引发加密市场明显反弹

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is struggling to rebound after a significant market drop, with weak market sentiment and ongoing selling pressure hindering recovery efforts [1] Market Performance - Bitcoin's market capitalization has shrunk by approximately $340 billion since October 10 due to a record liquidation triggered by unexpected tariff announcements [3] - Despite a brief surge above $107,000, Bitcoin quickly fell back below $105,000, indicating insufficient internal momentum compared to rising traditional risk assets [1][3] Key Indicators - Key indicators show a lack of recovery in investor enthusiasm, with Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest currently around $68 billion, down from a peak of $94 billion last month, reflecting diminished speculative interest [5] - The funding rate, which measures the cost of leveraged positions, remains stable, suggesting traders are not actively increasing long positions [5] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's price is currently below the 200-day moving average, which is seen as a critical threshold for any sustained upward trend [7] - Analysts highlight that $103,000 is a key structural support level; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $86,000 or even $82,000 [10] Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding recent price movements, with some viewing the brief uptick as a "dead cat bounce" while others see potential signs of a trend reversal [11] - Some analysts express cautious optimism, noting that Bitcoin's recent price action has tracked the rise of risk assets, which could indicate a positive sign [11]