CJS(SH:600176) Zhong Jin Zai Xian·2025-11-12 03:03Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Zhenstone New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Zhenstone") is facing multiple risks as it pursues an IPO, including declining revenue, significant reliance on a single supplier, high debt levels, and challenges in the glass fiber industry due to overcapacity and international trade protectionism [1][8]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dependency - Zhenstone's supply chain is heavily reliant on China Jushi, with over 82% of its procurement coming from its top five suppliers, and China Jushi alone accounting for over 62% of its operating costs [2]. - The shared control by the Zhang family raises concerns about pricing fairness, as China Jushi has significant price-setting power in the glass fiber industry [2]. - Any changes in the relationship with China Jushi could lead to severe operational risks for Zhenstone, including increased costs and supply shortages [2]. Group 2: Industry Cycle and Expansion Challenges - Zhenstone's expansion plans are challenged by an oversupply in the glass fiber market, with an expected additional capacity of 500,000 tons by May 2025, while current production capacity exceeds 7.8 million tons [3]. - The company's revenue has declined from 5.267 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 4.439 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a downward trend in sales prices amid increasing competition [3][4]. - The strategy of expanding during a downturn poses risks, including potential depreciation costs and the inability to absorb new capacity if a price war ensues [4]. Group 3: Financial Vulnerability - Zhenstone's financial statements reveal a high debt ratio, consistently above 67%, with a ratio of 69.27% as of June 2025, indicating significant short-term repayment pressure [5]. - The company has reported negative cash flows from operating activities in the first two years of the reporting period, highlighting a struggle to convert profits into cash [5]. - High accounts receivable, amounting to 2.653 billion yuan (40.51% of revenue), poses additional risks, particularly if customer payment delays occur [5]. Group 4: Trade Protection and International Operations - Zhenstone's international business faces challenges from rising global trade barriers, with a consistent overseas revenue share of over 15% [6]. - Recent anti-dumping duties imposed by the EU and India on Chinese glass fiber products complicate Zhenstone's market expansion efforts [6]. - Plans to establish a production base in Spain may be hindered by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating trade policies, raising concerns about profitability in foreign markets [6]. Group 5: Internal Control and Governance Issues - Zhenstone has a history of financial irregularities, including improper lending and related party transactions, which raises concerns about its internal control systems [7]. - The absolute control by the Zhang family over the company could lead to conflicts of interest and potential harm to minority shareholders [7]. - The company also faces risks related to employee benefits, which could impact operational stability and innovation capabilities [7]. Group 6: Overall Risk Assessment - The interplay of various risks, including supply chain dependency, financial instability, and external market pressures, creates a complex environment for Zhenstone's IPO journey [8]. - The company's ability to mitigate these risks and improve its operational and financial health will be crucial for its long-term sustainability [8].