DLS MARKETS：美元小幅走高，经济疲软会成为隐忧吗？

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has slightly risen to around 99.55 during the Asian trading session, primarily driven by the easing of U.S. government shutdown risks [2] - Market sentiment has improved as investors anticipate the passage of government funding legislation, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a mild recovery in the dollar against major currencies [2] - The fluctuations in the dollar index are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. macroeconomic data, fiscal policy developments, and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent economic data has shown weakness, putting pressure on growth momentum, with U.S. consumer confidence dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November [3] - The labor market is also showing signs of cooling, with private sector employment decreasing by an average of approximately 11,000 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, indicating declining confidence in hiring [3] - Market focus is on upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may provide signals regarding future interest rate directions, influencing the dollar's short-term volatility [3] Group 3 - Some forex strategists suggest that the easing of government shutdown risks is more of a short-term sentiment driver, while the medium-term outlook for the dollar will depend on actual economic data performance [4] - Key indicators such as inflation pressure, employment changes, and manufacturing activity will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy [4] - International factors, including the relatively loose monetary policies in the Eurozone and Japan, provide some support for the dollar, but a continued slowdown in U.S. economic growth could diminish the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage [4]