美联储内部分歧加剧，降息路径面临不确定性！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a rare internal division regarding its policy direction, leading to uncertainty about future interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Divergence in Policy Perspectives - During the September meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting further cuts within the year, reflecting a pace similar to previous years [3] - Hawkish officials question the necessity of further rate cuts, citing stable consumer spending and the potential for businesses to pass on tariff-related cost increases to consumers, which could drive inflation [3] - Dovish officials express concern over a weakening labor market and argue that current interest rates are restrictive, suggesting that rate cuts could support the job market [3] Group 2: Key Areas of Disagreement - The first point of contention is whether price increases due to tariffs are a short-term phenomenon or a long-term pressure, with hawks fearing sustained inflation and doves believing current cost-passing capabilities are limited [4] - The second disagreement revolves around the reasons for slowing job growth, with recent data showing a drop in monthly job additions from 168,000 at the beginning of the year to an average of 29,000 over the last three months [4] - The third issue is whether current interest rates are still at a restrictive level, with hawks arguing that rates are near neutral after two cuts, while doves maintain that there is still room for cuts [4] Group 3: Powell's Balancing Act - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is attempting to balance the differing views within the committee, signaling that a December rate cut is not guaranteed to manage market expectations and ease internal tensions [5] - Powell has previously faced similar situations and has adjusted policy statements to convey caution, but the current level of division is significant enough that mere statement adjustments may not suffice [6] Group 4: Ongoing Divisions - Despite dovish officials arguing that the current economic situation differs from the high inflation environment of 2021-2022, the lack of data makes it difficult for them to present stronger arguments [7] - Hawkish officials warn that once economic data resumes publication early next year, the Fed may find inflation still elevated [7] - The San Francisco Fed President has articulated the dovish perspective, indicating that slowing wage growth suggests weakened labor demand and cautioning against overly tightening policies that could stifle economic growth [7]