Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-12 06:21Core Viewpoint - Bubble Mart's stock price is under pressure due to a warning from Bernstein regarding potential underperformance in Q4 earnings, driven by a slowdown in demand observed since June [1][3]. Group 1: Demand and Performance Indicators - Bernstein's report indicates a general slowdown in demand for Bubble Mart's products in both domestic and international markets, with data from October showing a significant decline from peak levels in June [1]. - The report highlights that various independent data sources, including transaction data, social media trends, and search interest, collectively suggest a deceleration in fundamental demand, which cannot be dismissed as mere noise or channel shifts [1]. - The decline in indicators during October is noted to be substantial and consistent, leading to expectations that Q4 performance may disappoint market forecasts [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Following Bernstein's warning, Bubble Mart's stock experienced a drop of 3.7% on November 12, making it one of the worst performers in the market despite a remarkable 250% year-on-year increase in Q3 sales [1][3]. - The stock has seen a nearly 40% decline from its record high in late August, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately $20 billion [3]. - Despite the recent downturn, the stock has still achieved a cumulative increase of about 140% year-to-date, indicating a significant divergence in market sentiment among the 40+ brokerages covering Bubble Mart, with Bernstein being the only one to assign an "underperform" rating [3].