富格林：曝光欺诈防范套路 经济疲软降息升温

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a series of weak economic data from the U.S., which has shifted market expectations towards a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, thereby supporting gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4][7]. Economic Data Impact - Recent U.S. economic data has shown significant weakness, with private sector job cuts averaging about 11,250 per week and a notable decline in consumer confidence, dropping to 50.3, the lowest since June 2022 [3][4]. - The Challenger job report indicated over 150,000 layoffs in October, marking the largest monthly drop in over 20 years, further suggesting a cooling labor market [3]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have risen to approximately 67%, with nearly 80% likelihood for cumulative cuts by January [4]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts have emerged, with some officials advocating for caution while others push for more aggressive cuts [4]. Market Reactions - Despite a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, which could release a backlog of economic data, gold prices have remained resilient, supported by ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and low interest rate expectations [5][7]. - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of over 55%, with expectations for its best annual performance since 1979, driven by central bank gold purchases, declining inflation, and global policy easing [7]. Oil Market Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with WTI crude reaching above $61 before closing at $60.96, while Brent crude closed at $64.89, influenced by upcoming key reports from OPEC and the IEA [7][10]. - The impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports is causing uncertainty in supply chains, with Indian refiners hesitating to place orders for December, indicating potential supply disruptions [8][10].