美联储理事巴尔：AI将重塑经济前景，但最终走向何方仍是谜

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr highlighted the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) on the economy, presenting two primary scenarios: one where generative AI enhances existing tasks and roles, and another where it fundamentally alters work and leisure, reshaping business models and improving efficiency [1][1][1] Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI has led employers to reduce hiring plans, which may be slowing down job creation [1] - There is uncertainty regarding which scenario of AI evolution will materialize, complicating predictions about its impact on employment [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Transformation - Following a significant slowdown in summer hiring, the Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate in recent policy meetings [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding the necessity of a third rate cut in December, although futures markets indicate investor expectations for a rate decrease [1] - Barr noted that trillions of dollars in planned capital investment in data centers could drive significant economic changes, including productivity improvements [1] Group 3: Capital Investment and Productivity - Capital investment typically enhances labor productivity and creates conditions for higher output growth in the long term while mitigating inflationary pressures [1] - Significant changes driven by AI and capital investment may also influence the implementation of monetary policy [1]