全国6540万套空置房是假的吗？这个数据出来后，心里就有数了

Core Viewpoint - The widely circulated figure of 65.4 million vacant homes in China, which suggests a vacancy rate of 21.4%, is likely an overestimation and has caused unnecessary panic among homeowners and potential buyers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Data Analysis - The original figure of 65.4 million was derived from a report analyzing water and electricity usage, leading to a high estimated vacancy rate [1][3]. - The 2025 Housing and Urban-Rural Development Statistical Yearbook indicates a much lower urban housing vacancy rate of approximately 14.3%, which includes various types of temporary vacancies [3][4]. - Different cities exhibit significant variations in vacancy rates, with first-tier cities generally having lower rates due to high demand, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience higher rates due to population outflow [3][7]. Group 2: Understanding Vacancy Rates - The definition of vacancy rates can vary significantly between different institutions, leading to discrepancies in reported data [1][4]. - A reasonable vacancy rate is considered to be between 5% and 5%, with international examples showing that the U.S. maintains a rate around 12% and Japan around 10% [4][7]. - The perception of high vacancy rates may be influenced by current economic conditions and societal psychology, particularly during periods of economic transition [4][5]. Group 3: Implications for Homeowners - Home values are influenced by multiple factors, including location and amenities, rather than solely by national vacancy rates [5][8]. - Current market conditions may provide a more rational environment for homebuyers, allowing for careful assessment of personal needs and financial capabilities [8][10]. - Homeowners should focus on local market conditions and the specific characteristics of their properties rather than being swayed by national statistics [10].