Core Viewpoint - The recent drop in gold prices, with major brands seeing prices fall below 1260 yuan per gram, raises questions about whether this is a short-term correction or a signal of a long-term trend reversal [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - Major gold retailers such as Lao Miao, Zhou Shengsheng, and Lao Fengxiang have collectively reduced their gold prices, with declines of up to 13 yuan per gram, marking the first "brand-linked adjustment" since Q3 2025 [1]. - Current prices are reported as follows: Lao Fengxiang at 1249 yuan/gram, Zhou Shengsheng at 1250 yuan/gram, and Lao Miao at 1249 yuan/gram, while other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are slightly above 1250 yuan/gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: a recent pressure on international gold prices due to fluctuating Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and a rebound in the US dollar index, causing NYMEX gold futures to drop from 4145 USD/ounce to around 4080 USD/ounce [2]. - Additionally, consumer demand has weakened, with a 15%-20% decrease in terminal sales as consumers adopt a "wait and see" approach in response to falling prices [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Experts caution investors to be aware of three key risks: potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy that could lead to further declines in international gold prices, seasonal pressures during the traditional wedding season that may delay consumer purchases, and the variance in processing fees among different brands, which can range from 20 to 50 yuan/gram [3]. - It is recommended that consumers prioritize brands with transparent processing fees and favorable buyback policies, while investors should manage their positions carefully to avoid speculative risks [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market in 2025 is transitioning from a "one-sided rise" to a "wide fluctuation," reflecting both international price adjustments and changes in consumer sentiment [4]. - Consumers are advised to focus on their specific needs rather than trying to time the market, with wedding purchases potentially benefiting from brand promotions and investment purchases needing to consider global economic conditions and monetary policies [4].
金价大跳水!老凤祥、周生生集体跌破1260元/克,是“抄底”良机还是下跌前奏?