昨天这个信号出乎意料，货币放水迎来风云突变

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a significant change in the structure of financing in its third-quarter monetary policy report, which is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the housing market and investment strategies. Group 1: Financing Structure Changes - The financing structure in China is shifting from primarily loan-based financing to direct financing through bonds, with loans now accounting for less than 50% of new financing in the third quarter of 2023 [9][14]. - This change implies that the traditional view of using M2 growth as an indicator for housing prices is no longer valid, as the increase in M2 may not correlate with housing market dynamics [13][14]. Group 2: Implications for Housing Market - The report emphasizes that the increase in M2 is largely driven by bond issuance, which does not directly contribute to housing market liquidity, leading to a potential scenario where M2 can grow while housing prices decline [14][18]. - The only reliable indicator for predicting housing market trends remains the growth in household loans, as these directly translate into purchasing power for the housing market [15][18]. Group 3: Economic and Stock Market Analysis - For broader economic and stock market analysis, the focus should be on social financing (社融) and M2, as these metrics provide a comprehensive view of the financial landscape [11]. - The report suggests that the shift towards direct financing will primarily affect economic indicators and stock market performance, rather than the housing market [18].