Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-12 07:22Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618) and raises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,331.2 billion, 1,409.4 billion, and 1,485.6 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 27.1 billion, 43.8 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan for the same period [1][2] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecast for JD Group for 2025-2027 has been increased from 1,327.6 billion, 1,396.7 billion, and 1,464.2 billion yuan to 1,331.2 billion, 1,409.4 billion, and 1,485.6 billion yuan [1] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period have been revised from 22.8 billion, 43.6 billion, and 52.0 billion yuan to 27.1 billion, 43.8 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Valuation and Market Capitalization - The company is assigned a 9XPE valuation for retail and new businesses in 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 554.6 billion yuan, which corresponds to a share price of 190.96 HKD [1] Group 3: Q3 Performance Expectations - JD Retail is expected to achieve revenue of 248.67 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, driven by increased traffic from the peak season of food delivery [2] - The operating profit for JD Retail in Q3 is projected to be 13.67 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 5.5%, benefiting from optimized traffic growth due to food delivery synergies [2] - Overall, JD Retail is expected to maintain steady growth in the short term, supported by synergies from food delivery optimization [2]