央行报告为何强调科学看待金融总量指标？

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report indicates strong confidence in the domestic economic situation, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy that considers both short-term and long-term goals, with a focus on "financial total" to support economic growth and structural transformation [2][4]. Economic Outlook - The report expresses a strong belief that the national economy is progressing steadily, with sufficient foundations to achieve the annual growth target, supported by ample supply capacity, consumption potential from trade-in policies, and proactive macro policies [2][3]. - Compared to the second-quarter report, the current report shows increased confidence in meeting the established growth targets for the year [2]. Price Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase, with core CPI growth expanding for six consecutive months, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing its first increase of the year [3]. - The report suggests that to promote reasonable price recovery, macro policies need to work in concert, with expectations for stable price increases driven by project investments and enhanced consumption policies in the coming year [3]. Monetary Policy Direction - The report reintroduces the concept of "cross-cycle" adjustment, indicating that future monetary policy will utilize various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, balancing short-term and long-term perspectives [3][4]. - The focus on "financial total" growth is emphasized, recognizing that a natural decline in financial total growth aligns with the transition from high-speed to high-quality economic development [4]. Interest Rate Management - The report discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to facilitate effective monetary policy transmission, addressing mismatches in interest rates across different types [5]. - Future monetary policy will aim to standardize interest rate relationships to ensure that market benchmark rates fluctuate around policy rates, thereby maintaining a positive yield curve and bank net interest margins [5].