日元跌向155关口，日本财务大臣发出口头警告，何时会触发直接干预？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is nearing its limit of tolerance for currency fluctuations, with the yen approaching the critical threshold of 155 against the dollar, prompting warnings from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki about potential intervention [1][5]. Currency Fluctuation and Government Response - The yen fell to 154.79, its lowest level since February, before stabilizing around 154.59 after Suzuki's remarks [2]. - The recent depreciation of the yen is attributed to the Bank of Japan's dovish stance and market expectations of the U.S. government ending its shutdown soon, which supports the dollar [5]. - The government is closely monitoring excessive and disorderly currency fluctuations and plans to address inflation impacts through an upcoming economic package [1][5]. Historical Context and Market Sentiment - Historical instances of intervention occurred in October 2022 and May 2024 when the yen depreciated significantly, with the current 5% decline in the past month raising concerns [6]. - The 155 level is viewed as a significant psychological barrier, and the yen's weakness is becoming a political burden due to rising import-driven inflation [6][8]. Market Analysis and Intervention Likelihood - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe immediate intervention is unlikely, as current conditions do not meet the usual criteria for action [7]. - Goldman Sachs suggests intervention may only become likely if the dollar-yen exchange rate reaches the 161-162 range, while Bank of America indicates a need for the rate to test 158 for a meaningful policy response [7]. Economic Implications of Yen Weakness - The weak yen exacerbates inflationary pressures on Japan's economy, which heavily relies on imported energy and materials, increasing costs for households and squeezing domestic businesses [8]. - Rising living costs have become a political issue, previously leading to the resignation of two prime ministers, and the weak yen has drawn attention from the U.S. [9]. Intervention Mechanism and Historical Effectiveness - When Japan intervenes to support the yen, it typically uses its foreign reserves, which amounted to $1.15 trillion as of the end of October [10]. - Historical interventions have shown limited long-term effectiveness, as past actions did not prevent the yen's depreciation driven by fundamental factors [11][14].