南财快评｜央行报告为何强调科学看待金融总量指标？

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report indicates strong confidence in the domestic economic situation, a cautiously optimistic view on price recovery, and emphasizes the need for "cross-cycle" adjustments and improved regulatory frameworks [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The report expresses a strong belief that the national economy is progressing steadily, with sufficient support to achieve the annual growth target. Key supporting factors include ample supply-side capacity, policies promoting consumption, and proactive macroeconomic policies [1]. - Compared to the second-quarter report, the current report shows increased confidence in meeting the established growth targets for the year [1]. Price Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase, with core CPI growth expanding for six consecutive months, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising for the first time this year, indicating a moderate price recovery [2]. - The report suggests that promoting reasonable price recovery requires coordinated macroeconomic policies, with expectations for stable price increases driven by project investments and enhanced consumption policies in the coming year [2]. Monetary Policy Direction - The report reintroduces the concept of "cross-cycle" adjustments in monetary policy, indicating a shift from focusing solely on short-term measures to a more comprehensive approach that considers both short-term and long-term economic conditions [2]. - The emphasis is on maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions through the use of various tools, reflecting a balanced approach to monetary policy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Financial Growth - The report highlights the need for reasonable growth in financial totals to support the construction of a modern industrial system and the development of strategic emerging industries [3]. - It acknowledges that a natural decline in the growth rate of financial totals is expected as the economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [3]. Interest Rate Structure - The report discusses the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to facilitate effective monetary policy transmission, addressing mismatches in interest rates across different types [4]. - Future monetary policy will focus on standardizing interest rate relationships to ensure that market benchmark rates fluctuate around policy rates, thereby maintaining a positive yield curve and supporting banks' net interest margins [4].