“小登”受伤，“老登”上位，美股“成长—价值”的轮动信号？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a clear style shift, with traditional blue-chip stocks rising as technology stocks show signs of fatigue [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed up 559.33 points, nearly 1.2%, reaching a record high of 47,927.96 points, marking its 16th record close of the year [1]. - In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 58.87 points, a decline of 0.3%, closing at 23,468.30 points [1]. - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.2%, closing up 14.18 points, driven by sectors such as healthcare, energy, and consumer staples [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment is shifting from growth stocks to value stocks, driven by concerns over growth stock valuations and recognition of the appeal of undervalued stocks [4][5]. - The rotation from "pure growth stocks" to "pure value stocks" has been ongoing since August and is currently accelerating [4]. Group 3: Rotation Logic - The divergence in performance between the DJIA and the Nasdaq is attributed to the DJIA's lower exposure to technology stocks compared to the latter two indices [5]. - Investors are actively seeking new investment opportunities, moving from high-valuation sectors like communication services and technology to more attractive value stocks [5]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context - Weak macroeconomic data has not negatively impacted the market; instead, it has provided more room for the Federal Reserve's easing path, creating a favorable environment for the rotation towards value stocks [6][7]. - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. private sector has seen an average weekly job loss of 11,250 jobs over the past four weeks, which some analysts view as a necessary condition for continued Federal Reserve easing [7]. Group 5: Political and Economic Factors - The resolution of short-term political risks, such as the government shutdown, has allowed the market to refocus on economic fundamentals and monetary policy expectations [7]. - The Senate has approved a funding bill that is expected to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which has alleviated market concerns [7].