SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-11-12 08:12Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that Beike-W (02423) has significantly outperformed the market this year, with a positive outlook on the profit release from non-real estate transaction businesses. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 59.16 billion, 76.63 billion, and 96.75 billion respectively, with current stock price corresponding to PE valuations of 23.89, 18.45, and 14.61 times. The rating is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Group 1: Existing Housing Business - In Q3 2025, the existing housing business GTV reached 505.6 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.82% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.35%. Revenue was 6 billion, down 3.64% year-on-year but up 18.33% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The contribution of Lianjia stores to GTV in Q3 2025 was 190 billion, accounting for 37.58% of the existing housing business GTV, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.13 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.06 percentage points [1]. - The profit margin for the existing housing business in Q3 2025 was 38.96%, down 2.05 percentage points year-on-year and 8.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of Beike platform stores was 61,400, an increase of 27.3% year-on-year and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter. The number of agents was 546,000, up 14.5% year-on-year but down 2.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The AI product "Haoke" contributed over 50% to transaction volume, enhancing potential opportunity acquisition and improving personnel efficiency through the elimination of underperforming agents [1]. Group 2: New Housing Business - In Q3 2025, the new housing business GTV was 196.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. Revenue was 6.6 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year [2]. - The performance in this quarter aligned closely with the 14.2% decline of the top 100 developers as reported by CRIC, primarily due to the high base effect from the second half of the previous year [2]. - Fixed costs were reduced by 25% year-on-year, reaching a historical low [2]. Group 3: Home Decoration and Furniture Business - In Q3 2025, the home decoration and furniture business generated revenue of 4.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.06%. The profit margin was maintained at 32.00%, consistent with the previous quarter [3]. - The revenue growth rate slowed mainly due to adjustments in the second-hand and new housing markets, organizational restructuring, and a proactive strategy to control aggressive growth to mitigate risks [3]. - The company has achieved pre-headquarters expense allocation profitability for two consecutive quarters, indicating a positive outlook for the contribution of this business to profits [3]. Group 4: Rental Business - In Q3 2025, the rental business revenue was 5.7 billion, up 45% year-on-year, driven by an increase in available rental sources [4]. - The net confirmation ratio continued to improve, aiding in the increase of the business's profit margin to 8.7%. The rental business has achieved breakeven for two consecutive quarters [4].