2万亿顶不住普涨！上证指数4000点到底咋布局？定投算力别瞎追！

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark, leading to a surge in sectors like liquor and tourism, which rose over 5% [1][9] - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, with the index's upward trend supported by a bullish moving average system [3][5] Policy and Economic Signals - Recent favorable policies, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's action plan for high-quality development of computing power infrastructure, are boosting confidence in the high-tech sector [5][7] - Continuous support from the capital market, including improvements in the STAR Market's market-making system and facilitation of financing for tech companies, is strengthening the underlying support for the market [5] Industry Dynamics - Domestic computing power and chip sectors are experiencing significant developments, with SMIC's capacity utilization rate rising to 85% and a leading company reporting a 30% performance improvement in its latest computing server [7] - The trend of domestic substitution in technology is becoming irreversible, reinforcing the positive outlook for this sector [7] Liquor and Tourism Sector Analysis - The recent rise in the liquor sector is attributed to a short-term rotation of funds rather than a fundamental shift in the industry, with October's sales data showing a 5% month-on-month increase but a 2% year-on-year decline [9][11] - The tourism sector is experiencing similar dynamics, with both sectors benefiting from a rotation of funds rather than a significant improvement in their fundamentals [11] Market Liquidity and Trading Strategy - The recent trading volume in A-shares has stabilized around 2.1 trillion yuan, which is insufficient to support a broad market rally [12][15] - A daily trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan or more is typically required to sustain a strong index performance, indicating that current liquidity can only support selective sector activity [15] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on quality sectors and avoid chasing trends, as the speed of sector rotation has increased significantly [18][20] - Emphasis should be placed on long-term investment in core sectors like domestic computing power and chips, utilizing a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate risks [18][21] - Maintaining a conservative position and avoiding excessive leverage is crucial in a volatile market environment [20]