Ultima Markets:金价预测：黄金/美元收于关键的23.6%斐波那契阻力位之上，接下来会怎样

Core Insights - Gold is currently battling the key level of $4150, approaching a three-week high [1] - The US dollar finds support amid potential government reopening and increasing bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - Gold closed above the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level, with attention on bullish momentum around $4150 [3] Market Dynamics - Following three consecutive days of gains, gold buyers took a breather, driven by optimism surrounding the US government reopening, which sparked a "buy everything" momentum in the market [5] - Ongoing risk flows continue to diminish the appeal of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, further impacted by expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months [5] - The latest ADP data indicated a loss of over 11,000 jobs per week by US companies before the end of October, raising hopes for further Fed easing, with the probability of a rate cut in December now estimated at 68%, up from 62% prior to the data release [5] Technical Analysis - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slightly retreated but remains above the midline, suggesting any potential decline in gold prices may be temporary [10] - Gold closed at $4129, breaking through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level since August 19, with buyers needing to sustain a breakthrough above $4150 to initiate a new rally towards the record high of $4382 [11] - Initial support is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $4085, with psychological support at $4050 if that level is breached, while the critical line for gold buyers is at $3973, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the same rally [11]