猪价跌至11元/公斤，新希望第三季度净利仅513万元，连开策略会应对

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pig prices and the adjustment of breeding capacity have become hot topics in the industry, with New Hope acknowledging significant losses in its pig farming business due to low prices around 11 yuan/kg, leading to widespread losses across the sector [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, New Hope reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.6 billion yuan, a nearly 400% increase year-on-year, with the third quarter contributing a net profit of 513 million yuan [3]. - The company's feed business generated a net profit of 10.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 23% year-on-year, maintaining a monthly profit level above 1 billion yuan [3]. - The pig farming segment, however, faced a cumulative loss of 180 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a significant loss of 230 million yuan in the third quarter due to rapidly falling pig prices [4][5]. Market Conditions - The rapid decline in pig prices since the third quarter has shifted the industry from profit to loss, with many leading enterprises experiencing losses across most of their operations [5]. - The current price of approximately 11 yuan/kg has led to a situation where many enterprises are unable to sustain operations, resulting in forced sell-offs that may accelerate market clearing [5]. Production Adjustments - New Hope plans to gradually reduce the number of breeding sows by the end of January next year, which will also lead to a decrease in the number of pigs marketed [1][7]. - The company is increasing the proportion of self-breeding and self-fattening pigs, moving from a previous ratio of 30:70 to 35:65, as the cost of self-breeding becomes more competitive [8]. Strategic Focus - New Hope is not in a hurry to expand its pig farming capacity overseas, focusing instead on optimizing domestic idle capacity under favorable policy conditions [8]. - The company has seen significant growth in its overseas feed business, with a sales growth rate of 21% in the first three quarters, supported by new production capacities coming online [9].