高盛CEO警告：若美债增速失控，“清算时刻”终将到来！

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warns that if the current fiscal path continues without significant economic acceleration, the U.S. will ultimately "pay the price" for its soaring national debt, which has reached $38 trillion [1] - Solomon highlights that the debt has increased more than threefold from approximately $10 trillion in 2008, with aggressive fiscal stimulus embedded in the operating model of democratic economies [1] - The Peter G. Peterson Foundation indicates that the debt growth rate is set to accelerate further, with projections showing an increase from $37 trillion to $38 trillion by 2025, marking the fastest growth rate outside of the pandemic [1] Group 2 - Solomon emphasizes that the solution to the massive debt issue lies not in tax increases but in enhancing growth, noting a significant difference between a 3% growth trajectory versus the current 2% trend [2] - He expresses cautious optimism regarding growth potential, citing three key factors: corporate technology applications, a surge in infrastructure investments (with major companies expected to invest $350 billion this year), and a regulatory shift towards a systematic review of necessary rules [2] - Solomon acknowledges that while there are risks associated with AI investments in 2025, the acceleration of technology could lead to a leap in productivity [2] Group 3 - Despite long-term debt concerns, Solomon maintains a positive outlook on the short-term economic performance, stating that the current situation is "good" and the likelihood of a recession in the near term is low [3] - He notes that policy uncertainty is a commonality across administrations, and businesses must adapt, while the independence of the Federal Reserve and financial stability mechanisms play a crucial role globally [3] - Solomon stresses the importance of continuously attracting creditors to finance the debt, warning that if the debt continues to swell, "the ultimate solution to the fiscal dilemma will be the American people themselves" [3]