百利好晚盘分析：停摆有望结束 降息已成定局

Gold Market - Gold experienced a slight pullback, but the overall decline is limited, indicating that the upward trend may not be over yet. However, there are signs of decreasing risk aversion in the market, which could lead to increased selling pressure on gold prices [1] - The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for 42 days, but the Senate passed a key funding bill on November 10, which may end the shutdown. The bill's fate in the House remains uncertain, contributing to market caution [1] - Analysts suggest that uncertainty surrounding U.S. inflation and employment data may keep investors holding gold as a hedge against unknown risks [1] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating potential for further adjustments, with support at $4096 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices saw a slight rebound, reaching a new high for the month, but the overall technical outlook remains pessimistic with significant downward pressure [2] - OPEC+ members have agreed to maintain current production levels, increasing supply by 137,000 barrels per day in December, while pausing production increases from January to March 2026 [2] - EIA data indicates a projected increase in global crude oil inventories by over 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, which historically could lead to a price drop of 25% to 50% [2] - The combination of increased supply and weak demand from major economies suggests limited potential for a significant rebound in oil prices [2] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows a bullish candle, but long-term resistance remains significant, with support at $60.30 [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar rebounded significantly after a sharp decline, but the overall trend remains weak, especially with the potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support the economy [3] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue rate cuts, with some officials concerned about persistent inflation while others focus on weak employment and demand [3] - The labor market is cooling, and inflation is likely to rise, but the Fed may prioritize economic support, leading to a prolonged period of a weak dollar [3] - Technically, the dollar index shows a downward continuation pattern, indicating a long-term bearish outlook, with short-term resistance at 99.60 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting a potential bottoming out, with prices above short-term moving averages [4] - The hourly chart indicates an upward trend with key support at 50640 [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small bullish candles, indicating a strong probability of an upward continuation pattern [5] - The hourly chart shows a completed upward structure, with potential for a short-term adjustment, but buying on dips is recommended, with support at $5 [5] Market Overview - The U.S. federal debt is on a "vertical climb" trajectory, with warnings from the Congressional Budget Office about the debt potentially reaching 185% of GDP [6] - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and labor market concerns, which may not be resolved even with the return of official economic data [6] - The Trump administration is planning to open California's coast for oil drilling leases for the first time in decades [6] Upcoming Events - Key speeches from European Central Bank officials and discussions among Eurozone finance ministers are scheduled, which may impact market sentiment [7]