时隔五个季度重提“跨周期调节”? 央行货币政策思路微妙转变

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has subtly shifted its monetary policy approach, emphasizing the importance of both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in response to economic conditions, marking a return to discussing "cross-cyclical adjustment" after five quarters [1][2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy while maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, indicating a focus on both short-term and long-term economic stability [1][6]. - The recent report highlights the need for balancing short-term growth with long-term development, promoting an economic model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][6]. - The emphasis on "cross-cyclical adjustment" suggests a shift in policy priorities from immediate responses to short-term fluctuations towards a more strategic long-term outlook [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with signs of easing pressure on economic growth, as indicated by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [5][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.2% increase in October, with core CPI rising for six consecutive months, reflecting a stabilizing price environment [5][6]. - The PBOC's report indicates that the economy is showing resilience and vitality, with a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Outlook - The urgency for aggressive monetary policy adjustments has decreased, allowing for a focus on implementing existing policies while preparing for future cross-cyclical measures [7][8]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be prioritized over broad-based monetary easing, targeting specific sectors such as technology and green finance [8][9]. - The approach to cross-cyclical adjustment aims to enhance the efficiency of existing funds and align with high-quality development goals, moving away from an overemphasis on quantitative targets [9].