「美联储传声筒」解析：美联储降息之路为何突然悬了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal divisions regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, primarily debating whether persistent inflation or a weak labor market poses a greater threat [1][2][3] Group 1: Internal Divisions - A significant split among officials has emerged, with 10 out of 19 members anticipating further rate cuts in October and December, while hawkish officials question the necessity of additional cuts [2][3] - The government shutdown has exacerbated these divisions by halting the release of employment and inflation reports, leading officials to rely on private surveys and rumors to support their views [2][3] - The debate over the December meeting's actions is particularly intense, with hawks strongly opposing the expectation of a third rate cut [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Concerns about the labor market's weakness persist, with new job growth declining significantly from an average of 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000 as of August [5] - Inflation remains a critical issue, with a key inflation indicator at 2.9% in August, above the Fed's 2% target and higher than earlier predictions following tariff increases [3][5] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, has accelerated from 2.4% in June to 3.6% in recent months, raising alarms among hawkish officials [8] Group 3: Key Questions - Officials are divided on whether tariff-driven price increases will be temporary or persistent, with hawks fearing that companies may pass on more costs to consumers in the future [4] - The decline in monthly job growth raises questions about whether it is due to weak demand or reduced labor supply from immigration, impacting the decision on interest rates [5] - There is disagreement on whether current interest rates are still restrictive, with hawks arguing that further cuts could pose risks, while doves believe there is still room to support the labor market without reigniting inflation [5][6] Group 4: Powell's Balancing Act - Fed Chair Powell has attempted to mediate these divisions, advocating for a temporary impact of tariffs and linking labor market weakness to insufficient demand [6][7] - Powell's recent statements indicate that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting the need to consider diverse viewpoints within the committee [7][9] - The evolving stance of officials, including the shift of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee from a dovish to a more cautious position, illustrates the changing dynamics within the Fed [7][9]