KCM Trade分析师Tim汇评| 静待数据洪流,停摆尾声下的降息博弈

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to end by 2025, leading to clearer economic conditions as key macroeconomic data will resume publication once the government is operational again [1] - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill to keep the government running until at least the end of January, awaiting House approval and presidential signature [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment suggests that the resumption of labor market and inflation data may not indicate a positive economic outlook, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts next month [3] - Traders are optimistic about the end of the government shutdown and the possibility of the Fed lowering rates again after key economic data is released [3] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar has reacted to the expectations of a December rate cut, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below the psychological level of 100 [3] - The decline of the dollar is not uniform, as the Japanese yen remains weak due to expectations of increased fiscal spending by the new Japanese government [4] Group 4 - Gold and silver prices have risen due to the weakening dollar, with gold trading above $4,100 and potential to reach $4,235 if it breaks resistance levels [4] - Silver prices have also gained attention, returning to the $50 mark amid expectations of a supply shortage in 2026 [4] Group 5 - Oil prices have been boosted by the news of a potential end to the government shutdown, with U.S. crude prices rising above $60 per barrel [6] - However, the upcoming increase in supply from OPEC+ may limit further price increases [6]