金价涨势或持续至2026，真能突破5000美元？

Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of gold prices is expected to continue until 2026, potentially breaking previous records due to central banks in emerging markets increasing their gold reserves and changes in the macroeconomic environment [1][2]. Group 1: Price Projections - According to JPMorgan Private Bank, gold prices may rise above $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, with a potential range of $5,200 to $5,300 per ounce, representing an approximate increase of 27% from the current level of about $4,143 per ounce [2]. - The main driving force behind this price increase is the growing demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets, for gold as a store of value and asset allocation tool [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold have become a key factor influencing gold prices, with a significant increase in gold buying over the past two years [3]. - As of September 2025, global central banks have added 634 tons of gold, a notable increase compared to levels before 2022, with expectations that purchases may reach between 750 to 900 tons by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite short-term fluctuations, including a dip below $3,000 per ounce, the gold market has shown renewed upward momentum, recovering to near three-week highs [4]. - The market's response to changes in monetary policy expectations and the release of economic data is expected to clarify investor outlooks on gold and other asset classes [4].