Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-12 11:36Core Insights - The three major telecom operators in China reported weak revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with China Mobile achieving revenue of 794.7 billion RMB (up 0.4%), China Telecom at 394.3 billion RMB (up 0.6%), and China Unicom at 293 billion RMB (up 1%) [1] - The growth rate of these operators has been declining since 2023, with projections indicating a further drop to around 1% for the full year of 2025, highlighting a diminishing impact of 5G technology on revenue growth [1] - In contrast, India's telecom operators, Jio and Airtel, have shown significant growth in 5G user penetration and revenue, with Jio's 5G user base surpassing that of China Unicom [3][6] Revenue Performance - China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom have experienced a consistent decline in revenue growth, with 2023 figures showing a drop to 3%-5% growth, and projections for 2025 indicating a further decline to approximately 1% [1] - Jio's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is projected to reach 18.2 billion USD, while Airtel's revenue is expected to be 21.5 billion USD, both showing robust growth compared to their Chinese counterparts [13] User Metrics - As of September 2025, China has 1.167 billion 5G mobile users, with a penetration rate of 63.9%, but this lead is being challenged by India's rapid growth in 5G adoption [3] - Jio has achieved a 5G user penetration rate of 46% within three years of launching its services, surpassing China Unicom's 5G user count [3][6] Data Consumption - Jio reported a total data traffic of 54.7 billion GB for the period from June to September 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, while Airtel's data traffic reached 24.45 billion GB, growing by 27% [6] - In comparison, China Telecom's mobile internet traffic for the first half of 2025 was 51.2 billion GB, with a much lower growth rate of 16% [6] Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) - Airtel's ARPU has increased by 35% to 256 INR, while Jio's ARPU has grown by 19% to 211.4 INR, indicating a significant improvement in revenue generation per user compared to Chinese operators [9][11] - Despite lower ARPU values compared to Chinese operators, the growth in India's ARPU reflects the effective monetization of 5G services in a low-cost market [11] EBITDA and Profitability - The EBITDA margins for Jio and Airtel are significantly higher than those of China Mobile and China Telecom, with Jio at 54% and Airtel at 50% compared to 32% and 29% for their Chinese counterparts [15] - The operational efficiency of Indian operators is enhanced by lower labor costs and a high volume of users, allowing them to maintain profitability despite lower pricing strategies [17] Strategic Recommendations - Chinese telecom operators are encouraged to learn from India's successful monetization strategies for 5G services and to convert their user base advantage into tangible revenue growth [18]