Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hu Shang A Yi (02589.HK) has shown significant volatility, with a recent surge of nearly 29% after a period of decline since its listing, indicating a potential recovery phase for the company [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hu Shang A Yi's stock price rose by 28.96% to HKD 116.9 per share, after peaking at a 35% increase during trading [1] - Since its low point, the stock has rebounded over 45% [1] Group 2: Business Initiatives - The company announced a ten-year H-share incentive plan, with a cap of 5% of total share capital, aimed at incentivizing core talent through restricted stock [3] - A new subsidy policy for franchisees in the tea and coffee sectors has been introduced, offering up to 50,000 yuan for opening new stores [3] - Hu Shang A Yi plans to launch a sub-brand "Tea Waterfall" targeting Gen Z and students, focusing on products priced below 10 yuan, with a promotional campaign featuring celebrity endorsement [3] Group 3: Store Expansion and Challenges - The total number of Hu Shang A Yi stores has reached 10,739, an increase of 1,303 stores from 9,436 in June [3] - Despite the expansion, franchisees are facing profitability challenges, with reported revenue rates of only 50%-60% and some stores operating at a loss even with monthly revenues of 300,000 yuan [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - The gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 572 million yuan, a 10.4% increase from 518 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 31.4% [4] - Historical data shows average daily GMV per store was 4,109 yuan in 2022, 4,270 yuan in 2023, and is projected to decline to 3,753 yuan in 2024 [4] Group 5: Industry Context - The challenges faced by Hu Shang A Yi reflect a broader trend in the new tea beverage industry, transitioning from rapid growth to a more refined operational focus [5] - The industry is moving from a "Spring and Autumn" period to a "Warring States" period, with growth rates slowing and increasing competition among leading companies [5] - Revenue growth forecasts for Hu Shang A Yi from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 28%, 19%, and 15%, with net profit growth rates of 46%, 33%, and 17%, indicating a downward trend [5]
突然暴涨！新消费巨头，尾盘异动