10月法拍房成交额缩水三成，顶豪市场却现“抢房”

Core Insights - The national auction housing market in October experienced a significant decline in both volume and price, with total transaction value dropping by 32.5% year-on-year, and a clearance rate of only 14.9%, indicating a notable decrease in market activity [1][2]. Market Overview - In October, the number of auctioned properties reached 106,000, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, while the number of successful transactions was 16,000, down 7.3% year-on-year. The total transaction value was 19.34 billion, reflecting a substantial decline of 32.5% [2]. - The decline in transaction value is attributed to three main factors: a reduction in the number of auctioned properties, a low clearance rate indicating insufficient bidding participation, and an average discount rate of 74.8%, suggesting widespread asset devaluation [2][3]. Segment Analysis - Residential properties remain the dominant segment in the auction market. From January to October, the number of auctioned residential properties was 277,000, down 9.0% year-on-year, with 92,000 successful transactions, a decrease of 1.4%. The total transaction value for residential properties was 109.71 billion, down 16.6% year-on-year, with an average price of 8,319 yuan per square meter, down 11.0% [4]. - The market is characterized by significant regional disparities, with first-tier cities showing stronger resilience. For instance, Shenzhen's auction market reported a clearance rate of 63.75% and an average transaction price of 48,413 yuan per square meter, leading the nation in several metrics [4][5]. Price Trends - The auction price discount trend is more pronounced in different auction phases. The starting price discount rate for first auctions typically ranges from 0.7 to 1 times the assessed value, while second auctions see further reductions, with prices dropping to 0.56-0.7 times the assessed value [3]. - In commercial real estate, significant discounts are evident, as illustrated by the sale of a property in Shanghai that sold for 1.31 billion after multiple failed auctions, representing a 60% discount from its initial asking price of 2.1 billion [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current adjustments in the auction market are influenced by the broader real estate market environment and judicial auction rhythms. The differentiation in market performance is expected to continue, with core cities maintaining stable clearance and discount rates, while other cities may face longer liquidation periods and deeper price reductions [6].