货币锚定高质量：A股结构性机遇与投资新范式

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China's monetary policy report for Q3 2025 emphasizes "moderate easing" and "connotative development," reshaping the interaction between finance and the economy, and providing a clear opportunity map for the A-share market and venture investors [1][9]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The report indicates a GDP growth rate of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, supporting the government's growth target of around 5% for the year, reflecting the effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustments [3]. - The total social financing scale is 437 trillion yuan, with an increase rate exceeding 8%, aiming for precise credit allocation rather than mere scale expansion [3]. - The government's net financing through bonds is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, enhancing public spending efficiency through coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [3]. Financial Market Dynamics - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, emerging market ETFs saw a weekly inflow of $17.7 billion, and the stabilization of the RMB has reduced foreign capital hedging costs, creating valuation recovery opportunities for A-shares [4]. - The report's focus on accelerating financial market institutional development and high-level opening aligns with global capital's demand for allocation in Chinese assets, as evidenced by BlackRock and Morgan Stanley's positive outlook on Chinese stocks [4]. Risk Management - Regulatory measures covering the non-bank sector are expected to lower systemic risk probabilities, enhancing market fund allocation efficiency [6]. - The market logic has shifted from "scale speculation" to "value focus," with the valuation of the entire A-share market at 18.68 times, which is at a moderate level globally, providing a safety net for value reassessment [6]. Structural Opportunities - The report highlights support for technology innovation and green finance, which are becoming core areas for capital accumulation, with loans in technology-related fields growing over 10% [6]. - The green finance sector is expected to benefit from optimized carbon reduction tools and accounting rules, aligning with the global "carbon neutrality" trend [6]. Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector is poised to benefit from the "wide credit" policy, which is expected to boost domestic demand, with significant financial support for the private economy and small enterprises enhancing profitability certainty for related listed companies [7]. - Venture investors are encouraged to focus on "light asset, high growth" areas such as AI applications and green technologies, which are receiving direct support from structural tools [7]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a value investment approach, avoiding reliance on traditional industries that depend solely on credit expansion, and to focus on three main areas: quality enterprises in technology innovation, high-dividend consumer leaders, and green finance-related assets [7]. - Asset allocation strategies should consider foreign institutions' "overweight A-shares" approach and utilize the capital return window created by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to optimize global asset portfolios [7]. Long-term Implications - The central bank's monetary policy report signifies a shift from "scale expansion" to "efficiency enhancement" in financial resource allocation, indicating a long-term restructuring of development logic [9]. - Investors must align with policy directions and market demands to seize current opportunities while anchoring long-term value, reflecting the essence of healthy interaction between finance and the real economy [9].