食品成本大幅下降，印度10月通胀降至创纪录低点，降息预期再升温

Core Insights - India's inflation rate dropped to a historic low of 0.25% in October, driven by a significant decline in food prices, reinforcing market expectations for accelerated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India [1][3]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a year-on-year increase of only 0.25%, which is below the market forecast of 0.4% and marks the lowest level since the current statistical series began in 2012 [1][3]. - Food prices experienced a substantial decline of 5.02% year-on-year, representing the largest drop on record, influenced by a high base from the previous year, improved supply conditions due to abundant rainfall, and tax reforms that reduced essential goods costs [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The soft inflation data has significantly heightened expectations for monetary policy easing, with markets anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India in December and further cuts in February [3][5]. - Since February, the Reserve Bank has reduced the benchmark repo rate by 100 basis points, although it paused rate cuts in October [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Reserve Bank of India has revised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2026 from 3.1% to 2.6%, indicating that actual inflation may be weaker than previously anticipated and well below the 4% policy target [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the inflation rate could fall below 2% this fiscal year, creating favorable conditions for a rate cut in December and further reductions in February [6].