高盛警告：未来十年美股回报率仅年化6.5%垫底全球，新兴市场或将领跑

Core Insights - The dominance of the US stock market is facing significant challenges after a decade-long bull run, with Goldman Sachs predicting that US stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade [1][2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 6.5% annualized return for the S&P 500 index over the next ten years, while emerging markets are expected to achieve a 10.9% annualized return [1][2] Valuation Concerns - The high valuation of US stocks is a primary concern, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 23, comparable to the peak during the dot-com bubble [2] - The valuation premium of US stocks compared to global peers has exceeded 50%, limiting future return potential [2] - Structural advantages that have driven US stock growth in the past decade, such as expanding profit margins, declining tax rates, and a low-interest-rate environment, are unlikely to be replicated in the next decade [2] Market Performance - The long-term pessimistic outlook for US stocks is already reflected in market performance, with the S&P 500's 16% year-to-date increase lagging behind the 27% rise of the MSCI All Country World Index (excluding the US) [2] Emerging Markets Outlook - Goldman Sachs recommends increasing allocations to markets outside the US, particularly emerging markets, which are expected to benefit from higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms [6] - The report highlights optimism for emerging markets, especially in China and India, which are anticipated to be key drivers of profit growth [6] - Japan is projected to achieve an 8.2% annualized return due to profit improvements and policy reforms, while Europe is expected to see a 7.1% return [6]