Boot Barn Raises FY26 Sales Target to $2.24B: Still Room to Run?

Core Insights - Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) has raised its sales forecast for fiscal 2026 to between $2,197 million and $2,235 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 15% to 17% [1][9] - The updated forecast is driven by ongoing store expansion and strong consumer demand in the western and workwear segments [1] Sales Growth and Store Expansion - Management anticipates same-store sales growth of 4% to 6% for fiscal 2026, with retail store same-store sales expected to rise between 3.3% and 5.3%, while e-commerce same-store sales are projected to increase by 11% to 13% [2] - Boot Barn experienced an 18.7% increase in total net sales in the second quarter, supported by strong performance across all major product categories and the opening of 64 new stores over the past year [3] - The company plans to open an additional 70 new stores in fiscal 2026, which is expected to generate approximately $3.2 million in annual sales per new location [3][9] E-commerce Performance - E-commerce remains a crucial growth driver, with same-store online sales rising 14.4% year-over-year in the second quarter, surpassing the 7.8% growth in retail same-store sales [4] - BootBarn.com accounts for about 75% of total online sales, and management is optimistic about continued e-commerce momentum, particularly with brand-focused websites and AI integration to enhance functionality [4] Competitive Landscape - Boot Barn faces competition from Buckle Inc. and Deckers Outdoor Corp., both of which reported significant sales growth in their recent quarters [6][7] - Buckle's net sales increased by 8.3% year-over-year, while Deckers saw a 9% jump in net sales, indicating a competitive retail environment [6][7] Market Position and Valuation - Boot Barn's shares have gained 21.1% year-to-date, contrasting with a 17.4% decline in the industry, and the company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [8] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for BOOT is 24.16X, which is higher than the industry average of 16.31X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BOOT's fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of 20.5% and 13.8%, respectively [11]