Key Takeaways BOOT likely benefited from strong demand in core western and workwear categories in Q3.BOOT's exclusive brands, inventory discipline, and omnichannel investments supported execution.BOOT faced headwinds from uneven discretionary spending and potential cost pressures.Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) is slated to report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Feb. 4, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $705.6 million, implying 16% growth from the prior yea ...

Shares of Boot Barn (BOOT) have gained 1% over the past four weeks to close the last trading session at $180.21, but there could still be a solid upside left in the stock if short-term price targets of Wall Street analysts are any indication. Going by the price targets, the mean estimate of $231.54 indicates a potential upside of 28.5%.The mean estimate comprises 13 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $25.24. While the lowest estimate of $185.00 indicates a 2.7% increase from the current p ...

case for the moment. Let's get right to the floor show. Joining me now, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Fundamental Equity Managing Director, Greg Tuorto.Greg, um, new tariffs off the table. So, the markets moved on that the markets are moving on data. What are you watching that says to you this is a time to go long US stocks.>> Thanks for having me, Liz. Uh, you know, I think that there's a, you know, a slightly new paradigm in place, you know, where you have a a reflation of a lot of the cyclical sectors i ...

Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is entering 2026 on a steady footing despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, with demand driven by value-conscious consumers and rapid trend cycles [1] - Lifestyle categories such as athleisure and comfort are attracting younger, digitally native shoppers, while brand strength and product innovation are crucial for maintaining full-price sell-through [1] - Retailers are leveraging e-commerce, omnichannel strategies, and personalized marketing to enhance conversion rates and customer loyalty [1] - Supply chain efficiencies and strategic pricing are helping to mitigate cost pressures, while international expansion and sustainability initiatives offer long-term growth opportunities [1] Key Trends - Consumer spending remains resilient, with U.S. retail sales increasing by 0.6% month-over-month in November, and clothing store sales rising by 0.9% sequentially and 7.5% year-over-year [4] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have improved household financial flexibility, encouraging discretionary spending, which benefits the sector [4] - Companies are focusing on consumer engagement through product innovation and personalized shopping experiences, while also tightening inventory management and rationalizing store footprints [5] - Retailers are integrating in-store and online operations through omnichannel capabilities, enhancing customer experiences with loyalty programs and advanced technology [6] Margin Pressures - Intense competition is leading retailers to battle for market share through pricing and product assortment, which is increasing operational costs and putting pressure on margins [7][8] - Companies are actively streamlining operations and optimizing supply chains to balance growth and profitability [8] Investment Opportunities - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) is noted for its strong turnaround, driven by successful marketing and brand desirability, with a projected sales growth of 2.7% for the current financial year [18][19] - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) is experiencing broad-based growth and executing a "stores-first" strategy, with expected sales growth of 16.9% and EPS growth of 25.1% [22][24] - Victoria's Secret & Co. (VSCO) is revitalizing its brand through product innovation and operational efficiency, with a projected sales growth of 4.7% [26][27] - The Gap, Inc. (GAP) is undergoing an operational turnaround with a focus on high-impact marketing and supply chain modernization, expecting sales growth of 1.9% [30][31] Industry Performance - The Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry ranks 46, placing it in the top 19% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [9][10] - The industry's earnings estimate has risen by 9.6% over the past year, reflecting growing analyst confidence in earnings growth potential [11] - The industry has underperformed the broader market, declining by 6.7% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's growth of 16.5% [12]

Core Insights - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) shares have increased by 19.9% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks industry decline of 4.8%, the Retail-Wholesale sector growth of 9.1%, and the S&P 500 rally of 18.3% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Boot Barn's stock closed at $192.69, which is 8.4% below its 52-week high of $210.25 reached on December 12, 2025 [3] - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $189.77 and $166.03, indicating a favorable technical setup [3] Group 2: Growth Strategy - Boot Barn has revised its Total Addressable Market (TAM) from $40 billion to approximately $58 billion, supporting a long-term potential of 1,200 U.S. stores, more than double its current footprint [4][6] - The company plans to open 12% to 15% new units annually, demonstrating its brand's national resonance [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Boot Barn expects Q3 sales of $705.6 million, reflecting a 16% increase, with same-store sales rising by 5.7% across channels [6][10] - The company anticipates earnings per share of approximately $2.79, up from $2.43 in the same quarter of fiscal 2025 [10] Group 4: Margin Expansion - Boot Barn's exclusive brands reached a 41.5% mix, resulting in a 1,000-basis point margin uplift compared to third-party brands [6][8] - Merchandise margins have expanded by an estimated 790 basis points over the last six years, with an expected additional 110 basis points of expansion in Q3 fiscal 2026 [8] Group 5: Digital Strategy - The company's digital strategy has led to a 19.6% growth in e-commerce same-store sales in the most recent quarter [9] - Boot Barn is enhancing the in-store experience through technology initiatives like "WHIP" and "Cassidy," while maintaining consistent pricing across channels to protect brand equity [9] Group 6: Valuation - Boot Barn trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.61, higher than the industry's average of 16.12 but below its one-year median of 24.56 [11] Group 7: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn's current year and next year earnings per share has improved by 22 cents and 23 cents, respectively, in the past 30 days [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a merchandise margin expansion of 110 basis points, exceeding the guidance of 30 basis points year-over-year [3][4] - Over the past seven years, the company has seen a total of 700 basis points of merchandise margin expansion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exclusive brand penetration met expectations, contributing to growth but not the margin beat [3] - The work boot business showed mid-single-digit comparable sales growth, attributed to digital marketing and re-merchandising efforts [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Total Addressable Market (TAM) was increased from $40 billion to $58 billion, influenced by the Country Lifestyle segment and the addition of denim [22][23] - The company is expanding its store count target from 900 to 1,200, with an average new store volume of approximately $3.2 million [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building a proper sourcing team for exclusive brands and enhancing marketing efforts for these brands [7][10] - The strategy includes targeting the Country Lifestyle customer through partnerships with mainstream events like NASCAR and the NFL [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the economic landscape, noting that tax refunds and reduced withholdings could positively impact their core customer [43][44] - The company aims to achieve a mid-teens EBIT margin over time, currently tracking around 13% for the fiscal year [38] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging social media, particularly TikTok, to market its stores and products, focusing on authenticity and everyday creators rather than professional influencers [34][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the merchandise margin expansion? - The company attributed the margin expansion to better buying economies of scale, lower markdowns, and improved inventory management [4][3] Question: How is the new sourcing team adapting to tariffs? - The sourcing team is navigating tariff challenges and is about two-thirds built, focusing on preserving margins while adapting to changing conditions [9][12] Question: What is the approach to pricing in relation to tariffs? - The company plans to implement low single-digit price increases on exclusive brands post-holiday to preserve margin rates [16] Question: How is the company expanding its customer base? - The company is targeting the Country Lifestyle customer and has adjusted marketing strategies to reach this demographic [19][20] Question: What are the expectations for store growth? - The company expects to maintain a store growth rate of 12%-15% for the foreseeable future, with new stores opening in both legacy and new markets [29][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a merchandise margin expansion of 110 basis points, exceeding the guidance of 30 basis points year-over-year [3][4] - Over the past seven years, the company has seen a total of 700 basis points of merchandise margin expansion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exclusive brand penetration met expectations, contributing to growth but not the margin beat [3] - Lower markdowns compared to previous years allowed for better full-price selling, positively impacting margins [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has expanded its Total Addressable Market (TAM) from $40 billion to $58 billion, incorporating the Country Lifestyle segment and denim [22][23] - The average new store volume is approximately $3.2 million, with plans to open stores in both legacy and new markets [24][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building a proper sourcing team for exclusive brands and reinvigorating the work boot business [7][10] - Marketing initiatives are being tailored to reach a broader Country Lifestyle customer base, including partnerships with mainstream events like NASCAR and the NFL [20][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the economic landscape, noting that tax refunds and household income trends could positively impact sales [43][44] - The company aims for a mid-teens EBIT margin over time, currently tracking around 13% for the fiscal year [38] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging social media, particularly TikTok, to market stores and products, focusing on authenticity through everyday creators rather than professional influencers [35][36] - The company plans to raise prices on exclusive brands post-holiday to preserve margin rates, with low single-digit increases expected [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the merchandise margin expansion? - Management highlighted better buying economies of scale, lower markdowns, and improved inventory management as key drivers [4][3] Question: How is the company approaching pricing in relation to tariffs? - The company has held exclusive brand pricing through the holiday season and plans to implement low single-digit price increases post-holiday [16][12] Question: What is the strategy for reaching the Country Lifestyle customer? - The company is expanding marketing efforts to include mainstream partnerships and events, targeting customers who embody a rural lifestyle without being traditional ranchers [19][20] Question: What are the expectations for store growth? - The company has raised its store growth target to 1,200 locations, with a focus on both legacy and new markets [24][25] Question: How is the company performing in urban markets? - The company has seen success in urban areas, indicating strong performance in densely populated regions [32][34]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a merchandise margin expansion of 110 basis points, exceeding the guidance of 30 basis points year-over-year [2][3] - Over the past seven years, the company has seen a total of 700 basis points of merchandise margin expansion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The exclusive brand penetration met expectations, contributing to growth but not the margin beat [3] - Lower markdowns compared to historical levels have allowed for better full-price selling, positively impacting margins [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total addressable market (TAM) was increased from $40 billion to $58 billion, with the Country Lifestyle segment contributing to this growth [22][23] - The company is expanding its store count target from 900 to 1,200, indicating a broad-based growth strategy across various markets [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building a proper sourcing team for exclusive brands to enhance margin gains [7][8] - Marketing initiatives are being tailored to attract the Country Lifestyle customer, with partnerships in mainstream events like NASCAR and the NFL [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the economic landscape, noting that tax refunds and increased disposable income could positively impact sales trends [44][45] - The company is targeting a mid-teens EBIT margin over time, with current projections around 13% for the fiscal year [38] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging social media, particularly TikTok, to enhance brand visibility and drive store traffic [35][36] - The ideal new store format is approximately 12,000 sq ft, with an average new store volume of about $3.2 million [24][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the drivers behind the merchandise margin expansion? - The company attributed the margin expansion to better buying economies of scale and lower markdowns compared to previous years [2][4] Question: How is the company approaching pricing in relation to tariffs? - The company has decided to hold exclusive brand pricing through the holiday season and plans to implement low single-digit price increases post-holiday to preserve margin [16] Question: What is the strategy for reaching the Country Lifestyle customer? - The company is engaging in mainstream marketing initiatives and partnerships to attract this demographic, which includes sponsoring events like Stagecoach [20][21] Question: How does the company view the economic landscape affecting its core customer? - Management noted that the core customer, with a household income of around $75,000-$80,000, could benefit from tax refunds and increased disposable income, which may positively influence sales [44][45]

Core Insights - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT) reported preliminary third-quarter fiscal 2026 results that exceeded management's expectations, showcasing strong same-store sales growth across all regions and major merchandise categories [1][9]. Financial Performance - The company expects net sales to reach $705.6 million, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous year, driven by a same-store sales increase of 5.7% [2][8]. - Retail store same-store sales are projected to grow by 3.7%, while e-commerce same-store sales are anticipated to rise by 19.6%, contributing to a two-year stacked consolidated same-store sales growth of 14.3% [2][8]. - Income from operations is expected to be $114.8 million, representing 16.3% of net sales, an increase from $99.5 million in the prior-year period [3][9]. - Earnings per share are projected to be approximately $2.79, up from $2.43 in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 [4][8]. Operational Highlights - Boot Barn Holdings ended the third quarter with a total of 514 stores, having opened 76 new stores in the past 12 months [5]. - The company aims to reach an estimated 529 stores across 49 states for fiscal 2026, reflecting a formal guidance to increase its store base by 15% during the current fiscal year [5]. - Boot Barn has identified a potential for 1,200 stores in the United States, more than double its current footprint [5]. Strategic Positioning - The preliminary results highlight Boot Barn's ability to convert broad-based consumer demand into stronger operating performance through its omnichannel platform [9]. - The company’s consistent execution in both physical stores and online, supported by disciplined merchandising and supply-chain improvements, indicates effective scaling of its business model [9].

Financial Performance - Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 total sales reached $706 million, exceeding the high-end guidance [8] - Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) were $2.79, surpassing the high-end guidance [8] - Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 income from operations was $114.8 million, also exceeding the high-end guidance [8] - Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 same-store sales (SSS) increased by 5.7% [8] - The company has experienced over a decade of strong sales growth, with Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 TTM (trailing twelve months) total sales reaching $2169 million [19] - Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 GAAP Earnings Per Share is $2.79, with 15% Growth vs LY[16] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on new store growth, with a target of 15% new store growth in Fiscal Year 2026 [26] - New stores are expected to have first-year net sales of approximately $3.2 million and a total net investment of around $1.7 million, resulting in a cash-on-cash return of approximately 53% and a payback period of about 1.8 years [24] - The company estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of approximately $58 billion and a potential for 1,200 stores in the U S [28] Margin and Exclusive Brands - The company's Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 YTD merchandise margin growth is estimated to have expanded by 790 basis points [54] - Exclusive brands penetration reached 41.1% in Q3 Fiscal Year 2026 YTD, enhancing margins by approximately 1,000 basis points compared to third-party brands [56] - Q3 Exclusive Brands Penetration % is 41.5%, +240bps vs LY[60]