Coca-Cola Holds Value Share Lead Despite Latin America Flatline

Core Insights - The Coca-Cola Company's Latin America business experienced a slowdown in Q3 2025, with flat unit case volumes and a 4% revenue decline, impacted by a 3% drop in concentrate sales and 8% currency headwinds, despite a 7% increase in price/mix [1][4] Group 1: Business Performance - The company acknowledged that while interventions like sharper revenue growth management and marketing have shown early signs of improvement, a sustained recovery in Mexico will take time [2] - Coca-Cola gained global value share in the non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages category, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, with Brazil's performance driven by Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and innovative packaging strategies [3][4] - Despite short-term growth constraints from inflation and regulatory pressures, Coca-Cola's fundamentals in Latin America remain resilient, supported by a focus on affordability and brand equity investments [4] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - PepsiCo continues to emphasize value leadership, maintaining volume share and value perception through disciplined pricing and broad distribution [6] - Monster Beverage leads in the energy drinks category, maintaining market share through strong brand equity and strategic innovation [7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's shares have gained 15.3% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's growth of 7.6% [8] - Organic revenues rose 6% in Q3 2025, with a 3% increase in comparable currency-neutral operating income in Latin America [9] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Coca-Cola is 22.46X, compared to the industry average of 18.09X [10] Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coca-Cola's EPS implies year-over-year growth of 3.5% for 2025 and 8% for 2026, with recent estimates increasing slightly [11][12]