到2030年，现在100万的房子能值多少钱？答案来

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market, which has experienced over two decades of continuous price increases, is now entering a new adjustment phase with declining prices and sales performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the housing reform in 1998, average housing prices have surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to 11,000 yuan, a remarkable increase of over 5.5 times [1]. - In first-tier cities, prices have skyrocketed from 3,000 yuan to 65,000 yuan per square meter, marking an increase of more than 20 times [1]. - The current market is characterized by a "volume and price decline" scenario, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate sector [1]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - There are divided opinions among experts regarding future housing prices, with some believing prices in Beijing could reach 800,000 yuan per square meter and national prices could rise to 90,000 yuan per square meter [3]. - Conversely, others argue that the market is entering a downward trend, suggesting that price declines may become the norm [3]. Group 3: Demographic Changes - China is facing a significant demographic shift, with the elderly population expected to exceed 400 million by 2028, while the younger population is declining [4]. - This demographic change is likely to reduce the rigid demand for housing, contributing to potential price declines [4]. Group 4: Taxation and Regulation - The introduction of property taxes is anticipated, with plans to expand trials across more cities, which could increase holding costs for property speculators [4]. - The establishment of a more robust regulatory framework for affordable housing is underway, aiming to create a segmented market that includes commercial, rental, and shared ownership housing [6]. Group 5: Market Saturation - The real estate market in China appears saturated, with 96% of families owning at least one property and 41.5% owning two or more [6]. - The demand for new housing is expected to significantly decrease as most potential buyers have already made their purchases [6]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There are estimates of nearly 100 million vacant homes in China, indicating a supply that far exceeds demand [7]. - This oversupply situation suggests limited potential for significant price increases, with a downward trend already in motion [7]. Group 7: Future Valuation - The future value of properties will likely be determined by local residents' income levels rather than speculative activities, suggesting a return to housing's fundamental purpose [7].